Dynamical Modeling of Viral Spread
نویسنده
چکیده
In this paper we study a three-component mathematical model for the spread of a viral disease in a population of spatially distributed hosts. The model is developed from the two-component model proposed by Tuckwell and Toubiana in 2007. The positions of the hosts are randomly generated in a rectangular map. Within-host viralimmune system parameters are generated randomly to provide variability across the population. Encounters between any pair of individuals are evaluated according to a Poisson process. Viral transmission depends on the viral loads in donors and occurs with a given probability ptrans. At any time, the values of the viral load (V ) and the immune system uninfected (T ) and infected (T ∗) effectors for each individual are given by the solution of a system of three differential equations. We analyze the stability of the critical points P1 and P2 of the system and discuss numerical solutions for V , T and T ∗ obtained in Matlab.
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